Bruising Stags Have Nothing To Lose

Glenorchy Stags step up to Tasmanian Rugby premiers Taroona in this weekend’s Rugby Park elimination semi-final seeking to record their first victory over the Blues for 2011.  Neither side is likely to feel the pressure of favouritism but Glenorchy will be heartened by the possibility of another heavy ground to cater to their traditional forward strength.
 
Key players, Dan Aualiitia for Glenorchy and Pat Scramm from Taroona sustained concerning enough knocks to fail to complete last week’s encounter.  Aualiitia’s absence forced Wally Dare to concentrate the attack close to the point of breakdown, even considering the conditions.
 
Taroona have switched the direction of attack skilfully recently, bringing wide blind-side thrusts to bear from quick ruck ball.  The Holmes brothers, Rob and Charlie and fullback Nick Elliott have fringed wide of defending back-rowers to tire their opposite numbers in repeated contests for possession.  Glenorchy’s best runners Josh Papera and Stuart Dare found themselves under-utilised once turnover ball was available in the crucial stages of last week, but the presence of their usual fly-half might have given more latitude and allowed more timely inclusion of Wally Dare.
 
Taroona have shown solid scrummaging and adequate lineout capacity.  They mightn’t always hit as hard in close defence, but their forwards scramble in close and range wide, with skipper James Wicks and Nathan de Hoog key contributors.  Glenorchy’s Tom Dare and Xavier Frasson are aggressive contesters of the ground ball and Chris Harwood has consistently smashed the inside channel to convert average possession to yardage.  Either side can win - both have the assurance to prevail in a close contest.
 
The major semi-final at Launceston sees the home side as firm favourites to repel the challenge of the season’s big improvers Burnie Emus.  Whilst Burnie had a bye to conclude the home and away fixtures Launceston honed their preparation with a huge win.  Burnie will miss their highest scorer, fly-half Rhys Webber, with veteran Josh Baldwin most likely to wear the 10 jersey.  The re-shuffle could accentuate their tendency to impetuous attack, in contrast to the more measured build-up of the home side.  Launceston have a stronger scrum but Burnie pressures opponents’ lineout and tackled ball relentlessly, at higher risk of infringement.
 
Nick Sotirou, Johannes Loubser and Colin Montgomery should keep Launceston at their consistent best, with Jake Shayer and Robbie Lyons sure to look good going forward.  Brett Bentley and Oliver Crawford need to get Dane Apiti and Sunia Radravu enough ball to exert their experience on the less experienced home backs.  If a close contest develops there won’t be much room in the midfield, so the team that holds their nerve and dominates enough phases to use the tiring width of a heavy ground can win.
 
Semi-Finals: Taroona v Glenorchy (3pm, Rugby Park); Launceston v Burnie (3pm, Royal Park);